Data from the last two years are clearly on Bitcoin's side, says economist
According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has an unusually decent statistical chance of being higher in December than it is today.
According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has an unusually decent statistical chance of being higher in December than it is today. He relies on a simple cyclical indicator that takes the last 24 months and calculates how many times Bitcoin closed the month in the green.
Peterson wrote on the X platform: “50% of the last 24 months ended positively. This implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher in 10 months.” However, he did not disclose the detailed form of the model or the exact calculation procedure.
His note is also important, stating that the indicator mainly addresses the frequency of positive months, not the magnitude of the move. In other words, it counts how many times, not by how much.
His model uses historical data dating back to 2011. With the same indicator value in the past, the average future return is roughly 82%, which from current levels would suggest a price around $122,000.
At the same time, it is true that this is a historical average, not a promise, and we certainly cannot talk about a guarantee.
What the data and sentiment say
The context is also interesting because of how Bitcoin behaved last year. In 2025, it closed in the green in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the other six months ended in the red. Currently, the price is hovering around $66,000, which is 25% lower than at the beginning of the year.
Seasonality and trader expectations also come into play. Polymarket gives December a 17% chance of being the best month of 2026, and November an 18% chance. At the same time, CoinGlass states that since 2013, November has emerged as the strongest month with an average return of 41.13%.
There is still a split among analysts. While Michael van de Poppe believes in an early reversal after five losing months and expects Bitcoin to finally close the week in the green, veteran trader Peter Brandt is more skeptical. According to his forecast, the true market bottom awaits us no earlier than October of this year.
The current market tension is also confirmed by the Fear and Greed Index, which with a value of 5 signals extreme panic and maximum investor caution.
However, the Santiment platform sees hope in this situation. It points out that users on social networks have stopped feverishly predicting further price developments, which is usually a healthy signal that overheated emotions are cooling down and the market is returning to normal.
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