Bitcoin Prepares for a Major Price Breakout Under Resistance

Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Two Weeks of Stagnation as the Calm Before the Storm?

Bitcoin closed its second consecutive week in stagnation, holding around $79,500. First came impulsive growth, followed by a Doji candle, and now a weekly candle that lacks a clear direction. From a short-term perspective, there are no fireworks yet.

At the same time, one significant thing happened that needs to be emphasized: The downward price structure has been broken. For this reason, it is generally assumed today that we are witnessing the start of a new cycle.

Personally, I lean towards this view – I believe a new cycle is coming. Although I originally expected it to happen a bit later, markets unfortunately do not function entirely according to our expectations and wishes.

Bitcoin Still Lacks a Higher Local High

For the last two weeks, the price has essentially stood still. After the initial impulse, a Doji candle with a small body appeared, signaling a balance between buyers and sellers. The following week brought no change. From a weekly time frame, it simply doesn't look particularly dazzling.

The main technical problem remains the absence of a higher local high. An uptrend is defined by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Until this first condition is met, we are technically only in a phase of a possible technical transition.

A broken downward structure means the bear trend is no longer valid. However, it doesn't automatically mean we are already climbing. These are two different things, and it takes the market a while to decide between them.

A positive signal, however, is the fact that we have a series of weekly closing prices moving in close proximity to $80,000. I see this as a promising indicator of market strength.

Technical Setup Resembles the Beginning of 2023

Pricewise, Bitcoin is in a very similar technical setup to the beginning of 2023, just before the breakout to higher prices that de facto confirmed the new cycle back then. A complex structure is forming before our eyes, acting as the foundation for a new growth trend.

Because it is a process, building this structure took quite a long time. However, the conclusion itself happened a bit earlier than expected. Based on social media reactions, it can be concluded that most market participants did not anticipate such a quick end to the previous cycle.

Current obstacles to further growth:

• Resistance around $82,000: The price is clinging just below this level and has yet to break through it.
• Potential pullback: From a textbook perspective, a return to lower support levels would make sense.
• Retesting levels: After breaking out of a long downward structure, the price typically tests previously broken boundaries or levels where equilibrium was formed.

Historical Seasonality: September Does Not Suit Bitcoin

The factor of seasonality also enters market activity. Historically, September is not a successful month for Bitcoin, and the "bull train" usually starts moving in October. The fact that the market shot up as early as August was quite surprising in a historical context. While there have been years with solid August gains, on average, it isn't usually that great.

I don't consider seasonality itself to be a bulletproof argument. It is an average of a relatively small number of years, and individual years differ significantly. It is more useful as a tool for correcting expectations and maintaining patience during quieter months.

What is interesting, however, is that seasonality and technical analysis coincide this time. The September stagnation fits perfectly into both the historical pattern and the scenario of a technical retest after a breakout.

"If this is truly the start of a new cycle and history serves as our guide again, the period from October to December could be very interesting from a price performance perspective."

What to Expect in the Coming Weeks?

The baseline scenario remains unchanged: I see the current phase as completing the base for a new bull trend. I wouldn't view a potential drop to nearby supports as a cause for concern, but rather as a buying opportunity.

However, definitive confirmation will only come when Bitcoin creates a higher local high above $82,000 and manages to stay above that level. Until then, healthy caution and openness to both market variants are appropriate.