Today marks the final trading day of September, and the monthly candle is currently green. Since 2013, Bitcoin has never recorded three consecutive green months during a bear market. Can we therefore consider the bull market to have begun? And what could October, commonly known as “Uptober,” have in store?
Looking at Bitcoin’s monthly performance statistics since 2013, September has produced an average decline of 2.42%. The current gain of 6.18% therefore clearly stands out. Everything suggests that a bullish phase of the cycle may already have begun, making October particularly interesting to watch.
Bitcoin’s average October gain stands at 19.92%, with only three negative Octobers over the past 13 years. In roughly three-quarters of cases, Bitcoin therefore posted strong gains during October, living up to its “Uptober” nickname.
However, it remains to be seen how the cryptocurrency performs this year. When focusing specifically on years in which a bear market was coming to an end, the picture is considerably less impressive. In 2022, Bitcoin recorded a below-average gain of 5.56%, while October ended in negative territory in both 2018 and 2014.
Has the Bull Market Already Begun?
In my opinion, yes. Looking at the current weekly chart, last week’s candle closed above $82,154. This pushed Bitcoin above the peak recorded in early May and, from a trend perspective, established a higher high.
If I overlay the candles from 2023 onto the current chart, the next likely step would be for Bitcoin to search for a higher low. Based purely on that historical pattern, this could occur around $71,250. Of course, history should not be taken literally. It never repeats itself exactly, but it often rhymes.
The monthly Bitcoin chart also shows several bullish signals. For example, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced and is moving higher. Similar behavior could be observed near the end of previous bear markets.
Personally, I therefore consider the new bull run to have already begun, and I do not expect Bitcoin to search for a lower low. Only higher lows from here.
